Structured Credit Investor

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 Issue 951 - 9th May

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Contents

 

News Analysis

CLOs

Tariff turbulence tests CLOs - but structures and stability hold firm

Macroeconomic risks may outweigh tariff exposure

Asset prices in US broadly syndicated loans (BSL) CLOs have fallen following the recent wave of tariff announcements, according to Fitch Ratings' latest commentary on US BSL CLOs. 

By early April, the weighted average bid of CLO portfolios had fallen to 95.0 from 96.7 at the end of February. However, note ratings generally remain stable. 

Fitch reports that assets with bid levels of 95 and above constituted 81.7% of the aggregate US BSL CLO portfolio, down from 88.2% in February. Conversely, assets with bid levels ranging from 90 to less than 95 have risen to 9.5%, up from 5.2%. 

Christine Yoon, senior director at Fitch Ratings, observes that the credit quality of CLO portfolios had generally improved in the months leading up to the tariff announcements. "Up until April, we have seen stable and, in some cases, positive trends regarding better credit quality, losses, and gains. Losses have been relatively stable on these reinvesting vehicles," she tells SCI. 

Following the tariffs announcements, Yoon points out that it is too early to look at the consequences of new rules, but the majority of BSL CLOs notes ratings can endure the stress of an uncertain scenario. "The CLO market is not unlike any other market in terms of the reaction to the tariff news," she says, adding that "CLOs are not forced sellers". 

CLO structures continue to prove resilient 

Another stress testing conducted by Fitch found that over 98% of CLO notes in reinvestment periods maintained a positive cushion against downgrades in a scenario where issuers in 12 tariff-sensitive sectors were downgraded. WARF scores increased by approximately three points, while 'AAAsf' rated notes retained a 4.5% cushion, in contrast to 'BBsf' tranches, which dipped slightly negative at the fifth percentile. 

Yoon notes that this is not the first time CLOs have faced market dislocation, and the asset class has been proved resilient through that. "During the pandemic, we saw the market absorbing a great deal of shock then, with over 50% of CLOs exceeding their CCC limits. Yet, they survived that cycle as well." 

Yoon also emphasises that structural protections, such as over collateralisation and interest coverage tests, allow CLOs to absorb market shocks and protect CLO noteholders, starting with the most senior class, when portfolio deterioration occurs. "The combination of structural mechanisms and active portfolio management has historically helped CLOs weather periods of volatility," she completes. 

Diversification shields portfolios from concentrated sector risk 

Additionally, Matthew Layton, partner at Pearl Diver Capital, points out that the market has been evaluating the tariff impact through a broader lens, as CLO portfolios typically invest in more domestically orientated companies with local supply chains and customer bases.  

“The portfolios are hugely diversified across individual issuers, but also across industries,” he explains. “The specific industries that could potentially be most exposed are individually relatively small, with single-digit percentage exposures.” 

The sectors most affected by the tariff-related announcements, including chemicals, automotive, industrials, and consumer goods, represent approximately 32% of CLO holdings, according to Fitch's analysis.  

However, Layton notes that, despite this, these numbers should be looked at cautiously, as those sectors appear to remain resilient. He illustrates this by noting that issuers in sectors like specialty chemicals have demonstrated pricing power during previous stress periods. “Historically when raw material costs have risen, they have been able to revisit their pricing every six months.” 

While CLOs are not entirely immune to the impact of tariffs, Layton agrees that the most relevant risk may stem from broader macroeconomic shifts. “Potentially you could witness a more widespread slowdown in terms of earnings growth, which is not necessarily confined to the tariff-sensitive sectors,” he says. 

Marina Torres 

7 May 2025 15:15:23

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News Analysis

CLOs

SCI In Conversation Podcast: Ujjaval Desai, Sound Point Capital

We discuss the hottest topics in securitisation today...

In this episode of SCI In Conversation, Simon Boughey, US editor, talks to Ujjaval Desai, head of structured products investing at Sound Point Capital. Ujjaval invests in the equity and mezz tranches of the CLO market, and here he talks about where he sees value currently, and what yield targets he aims to hit.

This episode can be accessed here, as well as wherever you usually get your podcasts, including Apple Podcasts and Spotify (just search for 'SCI In Conversation') 

7 May 2025 15:57:47

News Analysis

ABS

SCI in Focus: New frontiers emerging for European NPLs

As legacy guarantee schemes end, investors pivot to PPCs, RPLs and real estate

As legacy guarantee schemes such as Greece’s HAPS and Italy’s GACS reach their end, the European non-performing loan (NPL) securitisation market is entering a period of transition. With NPL ratios falling across key jurisdictions and the volume of traditional NPL portfolios declining, investors and originators alike are turning their attention to new corners of the credit market. Reperforming loans (RPLs), real estate-backed debt and carefully selected asset pools are gaining prominence – alongside more niche opportunities such as public procurement clams (PPCs), which are increasingly being explored as a potential new frontier for securitisation.

The €1.4bn Project Rhodium, advised by Hogan Lovells and completed earlier this year for Attica Bank, is one of the most recent transactions to make use of the HAPS framework and marked one of the final uses of the guarantee structure in Greece. Around the same time, the National Bank of Greece also closed on its €1bn Frontier III transaction under the HAPS guarantee scheme.

However, future use of such schemes remains uncertain. “There’s a process to follow to extend application of the HAPS, which would require approval by the European Commission, and it is still uncertain whether an extension will be pursued,” says Annalisa Dentoni-Litta, partner at Hogan Lovells.

With Italy’s banks having now offloaded the bulk of their NPL stock through past GACS-supported transactions, demand for government guarantees has declined. “The NPL ratio for banks in Italy and Greece is quite low at this point in the market,” Annalisa notes. “Banks entered into HAPS and GACS transactions to offload large volumes of NPLs.”

Despite this transition, investor interest in NPLs remains strong - particularly among sophisticated players targeting specific niches. “We’re still seeing appetite for NPLs from investors around the world,” says Franco Lambiase, senior associate at Hogan Lovells. “There’s robust appetite post-HAPS and GACS - but investors are more discerning, looking for portfolios with specific investment objectives, such as real estate or hospitality.”

Real estate-linked receivables, in particular, are gaining traction. “Investors are interested in the real estate angle,” says Dentoni-Litta. “We’re seeing more portfolios targeting specific assets classes, such as hotels, wineries and other niche assets - it’s a way to bring different types of investors into the NPL space.”

PPCs and RPLs gaining traction

PPCs – legal claims arising from delayed payments by public sector bodies – are also beginning to gain investor attention, particularly in jurisdictions with a history of administrative inefficiencies. A recent report from ARC Ratings assesses this shift, positioning PPCs as an emerging asset class with securitisation potential. The public procurement market accounts for around 15% of European GDP, with structural inefficiencies - particularly in healthcare and infrastructure - offering fertile ground for credit transformation.

According to ARC Ratings, Italy is currently the most active jurisdiction, thanks to a relatively liquid secondary market and existing familiarity with the asset class. "Italy is the one that has a well-developed and experienced NPL market, that could be shifted partially towards PPCs,” Alessandro Perrone, senior structure finance analyst at ARC Ratings says.

"There’s also a very liquid secondary market for these claims and market participants are aware of the secondary pricing as a benchmark,” adds ARC’s head of structured finance for the EU, Cesar Horqque.

Other countries with persistent public payment delays - such as Spain, Portugal, Greece and Poland - also present potential, although the market remains highly jurisdiction-dependent. “Every jurisdiction needs to be taken singularly – they all have their own policy on public administration management,” Perrone notes.

While RPLs and PPCs differ in structure and legal dynamics, both asset types require a more bespoke approach and greater investor sophistication. “Reperforming loans are the ones to watch,” says Dentoni-Litta. “There have been RPL deals in Ireland and Spain, and we’re seeing them in Italy and Greece.”

These types of deals are, however, structurally more complex and highly dependent on local frameworks. “Transactions are jurisdiction-specific, and RPL transactions can be more complex,” she explains. “Moving away from HAPS and GACS gives sellers and investors more freedom in how securitisations are structured. There are various different ways to do these deals now.”

Investor understanding is the common bottleneck across both RPLs and PPCs. “NPL investors, especially Italian, are more likely to become familiar with PPCs quicker than foreign investors,” Horqque says. “We get people who read the report and ask us, ‘Oh, I didn’t know this even existed as a possibility for securitisation,’ so I think investor understanding to drive confidence will be key to growth.”

That flexibility, and complexity, presents both opportunity and risk, particularly for less experienced investors. Thus, entry into the post-HAPS and GACS NPL market demands deeper market knowledge – setting a higher bar for participation.

“In order to invest in NPLs, you need specialised and sophisticated investors - people who understand the markets they’re investing in,” explains Dentoni-Litta. “Banks do not invest in NPLs directly - that role is now with servicers, hedge funds and institutional investors.”

While experience and market knowledge are key, the investor base and geography remain diverse - with participation coming from the UK, US and across Europe. However, the make-up of the market is evolving.

The public market has seen very few rated transactions of PPCs so far. While ARC fields queries - primarily from the Italian market - the asset class is still seen as legally complex and structurally bespoke.

“Typically, the portfolios lack granularity. We don’t get portfolios of 1,000 or 2,000 assets,” Horqque notes. “In the cases we’ve seen, there are very specific claims and the portfolios are mixed – so not only PPC claims, but also other NPLs and sometimes RPLs – in order to get the right risk balance and critical mass.”

Legal and qualitative analysis plays an outsized role in rating such deals. “Legal analysis is particularly important: timing for local courts, for example, may be different from region to region,” says Perrone. “Europe is a puzzle of different jurisdictions – and every region has its own characteristics, even within countries.”

From an exposure perspective, PPCs are most likely to arise in healthcare and infrastructure contracts, and usually occur in sectors and jurisdictions where costs tend to be higher, thus resulting in delayed payments which may also be subcontracted. “Because PCCs are backed by governments or public administrations, they may be considered more secure than other assets, despite the qualitative risk,” Perrone adds.

Harmonisation efforts underway

Meanwhile, efforts to harmonise NPL management across the EU are continuing - particularly in relation to licensing regimes for credit servicers and purchasers. “There are ongoing efforts to harmonise NPL management across EU member states,” says Lambiase, pointing to the EU Credit Servicers Directive.

Dentoni-Litta notes that some countries require a licence to purchase receivables; but changes are coming. “The NPL Secondary Market Directive is aimed at fostering the development of secondary markets for NPLs in the EU by removing impediments to the transfer of NPLs, while introducing a license for servicers of NPLs.”

Growth, ARC says, could come from multiple directions – with increasing delays in public sector payments driving the supply of claims, while heightened investor demand for government-linked exposures could help pull the asset class into the mainstream. That said, regulatory divergence and patchy court efficiency continue to hold progress back.

“The market has commented on the desire of governmental entities to minimise delays in payment by directives and regulation, but things are not moving very quickly as this is not a quick and easy task,” says Perrone.

As the market diversifies, the frameworks developed in Italy and Greece may be emulated elsewhere. “Italy was the NPL hotspot for many years, followed by Greece,” says Dentoni-Litta. “But now we’re seeing transactions come out of other countries - which, to a certain extent, follow the market and legal structures of Italy and Greece.”

Despite declining headline volumes, securitisation remains the key structuring tool for European NPLs. “Securitisation is still the main structure used for NPL transactions,” Dentoni-Litta confirms. The difference now is in the detail - and the direction of investor focus.

ARC Ratings is expected to publish a second part of its PPC research series in the coming weeks, going deeper into how these assets are actually securitised. For now, PPCs remain a niche, but potentially strategic, segment of the evolving NPL ecosystem.

“We are still only scratching the surface of the market’s potential,” Perrone concludes. “The PPC market doesn’t have much history - but the interest is starting to build.”

Claudia Lewis

7 May 2025 17:55:22

News Analysis

ABS

Private auto ABS fuels EV innovation

Investor appetite for auto ABS remains resilient in Europe, with private markets stepping up to fund increasingly complex, EV-driven, rental fleets and non-traditional structures

A recent discussion hosted by Scope Ratings on auto ABS underscored that private placements are booming, not just due to yield appetite, but because they provide a vital testing ground for new asset types that lack the track record required for public issuance. This is especially important as the European market faces macroeconomic uncertainty and shifting vehicle technologies.

Bernhard Zahel, senior portfolio manager at DWS and Edith Lusson, Credit Agricole CIB’s md of the auto and operating asset securitisation division in Europe agree that the auto ABS asset class remains stable, despite wider macroeconomic challenges.

However, the public market typically excludes higher level of risk: "In the public market, only part of the originators is willing to place the junior ranking pieces," Zahel noted. Therefore, private markets offer more mezzanine and junior tranches leading to more concentrated and riskier positions. “Deals have been covered 10 times or more on the junior pieces. The demand is there.”

The result is a bifurcation: public deals tend to be standardised and senior-heavy, while private deals explore more innovative and riskier structures. “We see some transactions being financed in the private market and not being able to be refinanced in the public market, at least until now,” Lusson observed.

Testing ground for emerging asset types

Private deals increasingly include fleet leasing, subscription models and rental-backed structures – segments that have no direct analogue in public issuance yet.

This highlights the private market’s role as a launchpad. Sebastian Dietzsch, structured finance analyst at Scope commented: “We’ve seen several types of auto-related transactions – including rental fleets and trade inventory finance – being tested privately before migrating to public issuance”.

According to Scope’s structured finance analyst, Miguel Barata, private markets have the ability to absorb complex, high-risk structures, especially amid the rise of electric vehicles. “We see more transactions being presented to us with greater shares of EVs”. EV-backed ABS structures often begin privately, allowing investors and rating agencies to develop comfort with evolving technology and collateral profiles.

Barata also remarked that EV borrowers tend to have better credit characteristics due to savings on maintenance and fuel. This justifies the reduction in risk for this area of ABS and points to the future as more vehicles are shifting to this change.

Still, the transition to EVs introduces analytical challenges. “We’ve seen transactions with 50% electric vehicles share,” said Dietzsch, who stressed the need for robust data as the asset class shifts “from niche to mass market.”

While depreciation and residual value risks remain, the tone was cautiously optimistic. “If anything, we should embrace this riskier type of product,” Barata said.

Sustainability and new business models

New types of issuers are exploring ESG-labelled ABS, in particularly EVs, green fleet financing and low-emission mobility solutions. Lusson highlighted this trend, noting a “change in the business model with subscription business or different type of car sharing, which could lead to new type of auto ABS.” These sustainability models are currently too bespoke for public issuance, making private placements the logical starting point.

Beyond cars, bike leasing and truck securitisation are also seen as growth areas, echoing developments already seen in the US. David Tuchenhagen, ING’s head of asset securitisation in Germany stated: “What we have not seen and which is a quite significant market in the US, it's not cars, but trucks. That could be something to come at some point in Europe, and if we speak about the larger mobility space, bike leasing”.

Despite this innovation, macroeconomic risks remain on the radar. Tariffs – such as the recent 25% US import levy on cars – pose a major source of uncertainty, especially for European OEMs. Germany, with $25bn in annual US auto exports, was flagged as particularly vulnerable. “This will definitely put a lot of pressure on German manufacturers,” Barata warned. Such developments could affect residual values and supply chains, impacting both public and private ABS issuance.

Looking ahead, the overall consensus is that the private auto ABS market continues to enable structural experimentation and support the green transaction, particularly where public markets are not yet equipped to do so. “We will see more transactions with EVs exposure. This is where the market is moving,” Barata summarised. However, Tuchenhagen remarked: “We are living from one day to another at the moment.”

Matthew Manders

8 May 2025 13:05:17

News Analysis

CLOs

Resets reshape CLO equity returns across vintages

Poh-Heng Tan from CLO Research provides observations on recent BWIC Trades of CLO equity particularly the softer CLO equity bids since late 2024/early 2025 and highlighting that not all resets are accretive.

 

Deal Closing Date

Reinv End Date

Face (original)

Price (cover)

EQ IRR (issue Px 95)

Annual Dist

CVR Px

BWIC Date

FLAT 2021-1A SUB

Jun 30, 2021

Oct 19, 2029

2,500,000

65.66

10.2%

16.0%

65.7%

05/05/2025

DRSLF 2020-83A SUB

Jan 06, 2021

Apr 18, 2029

36,520,000

35.90

-3.4%

11.5%

35.9%

06/05/2025

FLAT 2021-1A SUB, a deal from the 2021 vintage, received a cover price of 65.66, implying a 10.2% IRR for primary equity investors—supported by a solid annual distribution of 16.0% since inception. The bond has appeared on BWIC twice previously over the past year, as shown in the table below. Bids were stronger in November 2024 and January 2025, as reflected in higher cover prices and correspondingly stronger primary equity IRRs of 12.3%–12.6% (assuming a primary issue price of 95).

 

Face (original)

Price (cover)

BWIC Date

EQ IRR (issue Px 95)

FLAT 2021-1A SUB

         2,500,000

65.66

05/05/2025

10.20%

FLAT 2021-1A SUB

         5,000,000

76.611 | DNT

28/01/2025

12.60%

FLAT 2021-1A SUB

         5,000,000

78.4

07/11/2024

12.30%

DRSLF 2020-83A SUB, another deal from the 2021 vintage, was reset in May 2024, requiring a $17.52 million equity injection to support the new structure. However, the price at which the additional reset equity was issued was not disclosed. Typically, reset equity is priced in line with prevailing secondary levels to ensure fairness for both original and new equity holders—though this is not always a straightforward process. At a cover price of 35.9, original primary investors would have realised a negative primary equity IRR, given the weak annual distributions and low exit level. This serves as a reminder that not all resets are necessarily accretive.

The next table highlights two more recent deals—NEUB 2023-53A SUB and BALLY 2023-25A SUB—from the 2023 vintage, which completed resets in November 2024 and February 2025, respectively. Both have performed relatively well, generating IRRs of around 10.0% for primary equity investors, supported by strong annual distributions of approximately 16.7% and well-bid cover prices. These bonds rank in the top 28th percentile of 2023 vintage US BSL CLO equity tranches traded via BWIC since July 2024.

 

Deal Closing Date

Reinv End Date

Face (original)

Price (cover)

EQ IRR (issue Px 95)

Annual Dist

CVR Px

BWIC Date

NEUB 2023-53A SUB

Nov 16, 2023

Oct 24, 2029

250,000

84.02

10.0%

16.7%

84.0%

06/05/2025

BALLY 2023-25A SUB

Dec 20, 2023

Jan 25, 2030

750,000

84.39

9.7%

16.7%

84.4%

06/05/2025

On another note, today features a large US BSL CLO equity BWIC list comprising 12 tranches—with a collective notional of $96.2 million—across 11 deals managed by several top-tier managers, which should help shed more light on how CLO equity tranches are performing.

Turning to EU CLO equity trades, OZLME 2X SUB received a cover bid of 37.81, translating to a 7.3% IRR for primary investors—slightly below the median IRR based on fully redeemed deals from the 2017 vintage. BECLO 8X SUB received a cover bid of 41.17, implying a primary equity IRR of 7.9% and placing it in the fourth quartile among 2019 vintage EU CLO equity tranches traded via BWIC since July 2024. The bond was also put on BWIC in late March, where it received a slightly better bid, as shown in the final table.

 

Deal Closing Date

Reinv End Date

Price (cover)

EQ IRR (issue Px 95)

Annual Dist

CVR Px

BWIC Date

OZLME 2X SUB

Sep 14, 2017

Jul 15, 2025

37.81

7.3%

12.4%

37.8%

07/05/2025

BECLO 8X SUB

Jun 05, 2019

Aug 22, 2026

41.17

7.9%

14.6%

41.2%

07/05/2025

 

 

Face (original)

Price (received)

BWIC Date

EQ IRR (issue Px 95)

BECLO 8X SUB

       4,350,000

41.17

07/05/2025

7.9%

BECLO 8X SUB

       8,925,000

47.579

26/03/2025

8.4%

Source: SCI and CLO Research

8 May 2025 13:59:26

News Analysis

CLOs

CLOs surge as safe haven driven by ETF boom

High-quality performance and improved accessibility are driving new investors into the CLO space, that no longer operates solely on the fringes of institutional credit

Traditionally regarded as complex and niche, CLOs have emerged as a surprising safe haven in the structured credit market. According to US asset management firm, Lord Abbett, CLOs —particularly triple-A rated tranches — are now drawing outsized flows due to their low-rate sensitivity, robust credit performance, and the rise of ETF wrappers. 

When it comes to credit performance, the quality of the bulk of CLO credit is considered high, with approximately 65% of the asset class rated triple-A, and no CLO tranche rated single-A or higher having ever experienced a loss from default. Spreads are also typically wider than like-rated corporate debt, leading to attractive relative value. 

With that, CLOs, particularly those rated triple-A, have seen a surge in demand. New investor cohorts are entering the space, also drawn by the ease and liquidity that exchange-traded funds (ETFs) provide. According to Abbett’s report, flows into triple-A focused CLO ETFs have ballooned over the past year, with assets in largely triple-A focused strategies exceeding US$30bn as of March 2025. 

The emergence of these new, convenient ETFs wrappers is also starting to have effects on the pricing of CLOs, exhibited through both volatility and relative value, as the company notes. Volatility levels have compressed over the last few years, but not nearly as much for the triple-A tranche, which has exhibited volatility like double-A tranches over the last year. Spreads also have compressed over time, with triple-A CLO spreads having compressed more, especially during periods of heavy CLO ETF inflows, the firm says. 

According to Adam C. Castle, partner at Lord Abbett, the company believes that a flexible and active approach can deliver the features of the CLO asset class while mitigating some of the risk of overpaying due to the popularity of a tranche or trade. “Flexibility, combined with fundamental credit work, can potentially earn better risk adjusted returns and act as a better ballast for fixed-income portfolios.” 

Nevertheless, for investors seeking yield without taking on significant interest-rate risk, CLOs, once confined to the backwaters of institutional credit, may now represent a surprisingly mainstream choice. 

Marina Torres 

9 May 2025 11:49:17

News Analysis

ABS

Rethinking fixed income: strategic role of ABS in modern portfolios

Simplify Asset Management's md explains how ABS enhances income, diversification and stability in today's evolving portfolio strategies

As investors recalibrate portfolios amid persistent rate volatility and shifting macroeconomic conditions, ABS is gaining renewed attention – not just as a niche product but as a strategic tool for modern portfolio construction.

Paisley Nardini, md and asset allocation strategist at Simplify Asset Management, sees structured products playing an increasingly important role in how investors think about risk, income and diversification. “ABS offer a unique combination of attributes that can serve both core and opportunistic functions in a portfolio,” Nardini explains. “Given their shorter duration profiles and floating-rate features, they’ve become particularly attractive in a rate-sensitive environment.”

As traditional fixed income strategies come under pressure, especially those heavily tied to longer-duration assets, investors are looking for ways to maintain yield without taking on undue interest rate risk. ABS, which pool cash flows from consumer-related assets such as credit cards, auto loans and equipment leases, offer yields that are competitive with corporate credit, while often maintaining higher credit quality.

“Investors are recognising that ABS can complement or even replace parts of traditional fixed income allocations,” says Nardini. “They provide structured exposure to consumer credit and other real economy sectors, but with lower duration risk and robust structural protections.”

Compared to private credit or certain hedge fund strategies, ABS stands out in terms of liquidity and operational accessibility. Most ABS, particularly those rated investment-grade, are traded in public markets and are supported by standardised documentation and surveillance.

ABS vs. other alternatives

While institutional investors are increasingly allocating to private markets, Nardini suggests that structured products like ABS provide a more liquid and scalable way to diversify away from traditional equities and bonds, without the lockups and opacity that often accompany private alts.

“Private credit may offer premium yields, but with trade-offs in liquidity and mark-to-market visibility,” she says. “ABS, especially in the more established sectors, give you many of the same exposures, with greater flexibility.”

Nardini also points to the evolution of the ABS market itself. The rise of esoteric ABS, including those backed by renewable energy assets, data centres and subscription contracts, is expanding the opportunity set and further blurring the lines between traditional credit and alternative assets.

“We’re seeing innovation in both collateral types and structuring,” she says. “That makes ABS not only a source of stable income, but also a way to gain exposure to sectors you might not reach through corporate bonds.”

As CIOs and asset allocators rethink how to build resilient portfolios in a world of higher inflation and uncertain growth, Nardini advocates for a more intentional inclusion of structured products. “ABS should no longer be seen as an add-on or a specialty play,” she states. “They’re central to constructing diversified, income-generating portfolios that can withstand both rate shocks and credit cycles.”

Selvaggia Cataldi 

9 May 2025 13:35:11

News Analysis

Alternative assets

Grounded, again

After burst of life in 2024 and early 2025, aircraft ABS wings clipped

Following a brief flurry of activity in the aircraft ABS market that began in July of last year, the window has now slammed shut due to persistently high rates and general global economic uncertainty.

In particular, Chinese lessees, who were a big engine of business in the market, have been taken out of the picture.

Ten-year Treasury rates are stuck above 4% (4.26% this afternoon, May 8th) and with Fed chairman this week keeping rates on hold, there is unlikely to be much relief in the near to medium term.

The caution and retrenchment that is governing world markets is also beginning to affect air travel as well. Ther big carriers report a drop in reservations for the next few months.

"Unlike other esoteric asset classes, we have seen the new issue market for aircraft ABS shut down very quickly in response to global black swan events such as 9/11, the global financial crisis, and Covid/Russian seizure of aircraft. With the recovery in global travel, lower interest rates, issuers looking for long term financing to take out their warehouse financing and investors looking for some additional yield, the new issue market for aircraft ABS opened last year,” explains Evan Wallach, co-president of Global AirFinance Services, a New Jersey-based boutique advisor to aviation investors.

After 9/11, for example, the aircraft ABS market shut entirely for several years, and it did so again after the financial crisis of 2008/2009. In its capacity to utterly seize up, it is perhaps unique in the world of asset financing.

The market sprang to life in July 2024 for the first time in two years with five new issues before the end of the year, totalling about US$4bn. The issuers were all well-known lessors, led by Carlyle Aviation and followed by BBAM Aircraft and Leasing, Dubai Aerospace Aviation (DAE) and Sky Leasing.

There have been four new issues this year, with Carlyle and Castlelake Aviation coming to the market, followed by two smaller names. But the supply has now dried up.

Several factors drove the re-opening of the market last year. A global shortage of aircraft due, in part, to the well-documented problems at Boeing and Airbus meant that there was enormous demand for existing aircraft and lessors have been able to negotiate more advantageous lease rates for longer terms.

In addition, due to the supply shortfall, lessors received higher prices in the market for other lessors and from lessees who were looking to buy aircraft outright at lease expiration.

There was also pressure on the lessors to take out the loans with commercial banks, initially negotiated as warehouse facilities in 2019, which were then re-negotiated as three or four-year term loans during the pandemic.

Then rates fell in early 2024. “With interest rates coming down below 4%, and strong demand for leased aircraft driving lease rates higher and aircraft values higher, we saw new aircraft ABS issues in the second half of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025 with very strong demand from investors. However, due to the recent market turmoil and the potential impact on global travel, the risk premium has widened on senior Class As by 50 to 75 basis points and 75 to 100 basis points for the junior Class Bs in secondary market trading. Even though the US treasury rates are still lower, investors want an additional premium for aircraft ABS which currently has made the cost of new issues too high. So again the new issue market has closed as issuers take a wait and see approach.” explains Wallach.

Deal size is typically around US$500m t0 US$800m, and class A bonds are generally rated single-A and price at around Treasuries plus 150bp. The B tranches come in around plus 225bp.

But now that window has now closed again, and there is no telling when it will re-open. That depends on many factors, not the least of which is the whim of the most prominent resident of Mar-a-Lago.

 

Simon Boughey

 

9 May 2025 14:36:02

SRT Market Update

Capital Relief Trades

Energy efficiency loan deal agreed

EIB Group and Cetelem partner on Spanish SRT

Cetelem, BNP Paribas Personal Finance’s commercial brand in Spain, has finalised a €93m synthetic securitisation with the EIB Group. The transaction will enable €200m of financing for energy efficiency investments by Spanish households.  

The deal references a portfolio of consumer loans originated by Banco Cetelem and includes protection on the mezzanine tranche provided by the EIF and counter-guaranteed by the EIB. The transaction features synthetic excess spread, a one-year revolving period and pro-rata amortisation, subject to performance triggers. The junior tranche is fully retained by Cetelem.  

Proceeds from the deal will fund loans for residential energy upgrades, including solar panels, insulation and energy-efficient equipment. The projects are expected to target 100% green criteria, mainly focusing on EU cohesion regions.  

“This securitisation operation is a good example of how innovative financing methods can help the transition to a greener and more sustainable future,” comments Marjut Falkstedt, EIF’s chief executive.  

She notes that the agreement with Cetelem will make loans available to households, so that they can invest in improving the energy efficiency of their homes and combat global warming.  

This move marks the first synthetic securitisation between Cetelem and the EIB Group. The transaction will also contribute to some of the key objectives in EIB’s 2024–2027 strategic roadmap, such as climate action and capital markets development. 

Nadezhda Bratanova

6 May 2025 18:19:11

SRT Market Update

Capital Relief Trades

Decarbonisation

BNP Paribas and PGGM complete SRT

BNP Paribas and PGGM have closed a US$2bn SRT, referencing a global portfolio of loans to projects financed by BNP Paribas’ Energy, Resource and Infrastructure teams.

The transaction allows BNP Paribas to offload some of the credit risk of a portfolio of project finance loans, with the majority of these projects directly contributing to decarbonisation.

Structured to meet the STS criteria, the transaction delivers material capital relief for BNP Paribas, while for PGGM and its end-investor PFZW, the transaction reflects their ambition to contribute to the Sustainable Development Goals and to support banks in enabling their clients to transition and become net-zero.

“We particularly appreciate the combination of BNP Paribas’ high quality credit management and its clear strategy to support the transition to a low carbon world,” comments Joost Hoogeveen, senior director at PGGM. 

Both BNP Paribas and PGGM are committed to accelerate the movement to a more sustainable economy and the transition of the energy production towards more renewable sources.

 

Vincent Nadeau

7 May 2025 11:38:11

News

ABS

Fitch opens consultation on physical climate risk in structured finance

Rating agency seeks market input on draft assessment framework

Fitch is calling for feedback on its new physical climate risk framework following publication of a discussion paper at the end of April. The proposed approach sets out how risks like flood, wildfire, wind, drought, storms and extreme temperatures could be incorporated into structured finance analysis in CMBS, RMBS and covered bonds. 

The paper outlines a preliminary framework that would allow Fitch to assess locations and expected duration of exposure to physical hazards and the potential for credit deterioration resulting from such risks. This includes both asset-level disruption, such as flood damage to underlying collateral, and indirect risks such as regional economic strain or insurance retrenchment.  

The discussion paper builds on the risks observed in the most recent disasters. Fitch has previously flagged secondary impacts in specific events - including the recent California wildfires - where insurer withdrawals and coverage constraints raised questions about long-term asset insurability and borrower resilience.  

Initial efforts under Fitch’s new Physical Climate Exposure Assessment (Climate.EAp) will focus on RMBS and CMBS markets, where underlying collateral is often more vulnerable to climate-related risks. The methodology applies regional analysis across broad administrative zones down to just 30km grid areas, including US ZIP code areas, UK local authorities, and NUTS3 regions in Europe - where high resolution geographic data is often available. 

Although certain physical risks are already considered at a deal level - for example, in cases where insurance availability is limited - a more systematic methodology is needed as climate risks become more financially material over time. 

The agency says it does not currently plan to change ratings as part of the framework’s introduction but intends to use it as an overlay to identify relative exposure and to support scenario analysis. Future extensions may include European assets and other consumer ABS types, depending on the availability of location-level data. 

While the framework is initially intended as an overlay tool for exposure analysis and scenario testing, the integration of Climate.EAp may adjust analytical assumptions and result in rating impacts at a note level. 

Market participants have until 13 June 2025 to submit feedback. Fitch has requested input on both the methodological design and practical implementation challenges, including data access and integration into credit models.

Claudia Lewis

 

 

8 May 2025 16:56:17

News

ABS

MPOWER prices second ABS as demand for international student loans rises

US-based student loan provider completes second ABS deal, expanding into Canadian loans and growing demand for international student financing

MPOWER Financing, a US-based provider of loans to international university students, has completed its second securitisation: MPOWER Education Trust 2025-A, a $313.2m transaction backed by U.S. dollar-denominated, fixed-rate loans to international students attending universities in the United States and Canada. 

The deal is part of a plan of developing a regular stream of issuance, as Manu Smadja, ceo of MPOWER, explains. “For the past 11 years, I've been fighting to show that international students get As in the classroom, and also that they're credit worthy, and now we're able to show that they also get As on ABS execution,” he says.  

Deutsche Bank served as the structuring agent and joint bookrunner and Goldman Sachs joint bookrunner. The transaction featured three tranches: Morningstar DBRS and KBRA rated the class A notes A/A, while DBRS rated the class B and C notes BBB and BB (low), respectively. The notes were placed with a range of blue-chip investors, including asset managers, pension funds, and insurance companies. 

The deal size exceeded MPOWER’s inaugural transaction of $215.2m in 2024, which represents nearly 50% increase in collateral pool size. Last year’s transaction, MPOWER Education Trust 2024-A, was the first securitisation of international student loans by a US-domiciled private student lending platform.  

The company remains focused on post-graduate students from developing economies - including India, Mexico, Brazil, west Africa and southeast Asia - studying advanced degrees in STEM, AI, business and healthcare, areas that remain “highly sought-after by employers.” 

According to Smadja, investors recognize the value of this student segment, and this year’s transaction worked accordingly to prove so. “They are ambitious, resilient and contribute to the global economy in critical sectors like STEM and new paradigms driving business, such as AI. By supporting them, we are strengthening our business model and fueling innovation and economic growth in North America,” he says. 

A driving force in the US education 

While recent statements from US president Donald Trump on intentions to revoke student visas from international students might have scared students in the country, MPOWER’s ceo remains confident in the sector. Smadja explains that, even though a high number of students initially had their SEVIS status or visa temporarily revoked (around 5.000) the number represents a low percentage of the international student body in the United States (around 0.5%), and no MPOWER students were affected.  

Ultimately, it didn’t matter in the end since “the visa revocations got revoked”, he adds, “once you take away the noise, international students are fine. We're having a record year in terms of the numbers who want to come here.”  

Smadja also emphasises the broader importance of international students in the US education and economy. “International students at the end of the day are a key lifeline for schools. They bring in cash. They make up a third of the student body at some of these universities. They raise the GRE/GMAT and other standardized test score averages because you truly get the best and brightest from around the world. There's a very, very high bar to come to this country for international students.” 

Either way, for the future, MPOWER is already looking at different markets in North America in case this scenario shifts. “The intentions to come next year will be lower, so instead of 1.1m students in the US, with 300k that come fresh every year, we might have 200k that come fresh next year. That 100k difference might go to Canada, which is swinging the other way politically, and maybe even more welcoming to new students.” 

In this year’s transaction, MPOWER welcomed students from Canadian universities who took loans US student loans. “We introduced US student loans made to international students at top Canadian institutions. We had students from University of Toronto, Queens, McMaster, University of Waterloo, and several other top schools. It's still the same loan structure; it's still a US student loan. It's just made to someone who's going to school across the northern border,” he says. 

Marina Torres

9 May 2025 14:53:01

News

ABS

Investor caution advised as solar ABS faces credit performance hurdles

KBRA report highlights structural evolution and emerging risks in the solar ABS sector

Credit performance risks and originator concentrations are coming into focus for the ever-growing solar ABS market. According to a new report from KBRA reviewing a decade of issuance in the sector, the market is entering into a more mature, if potentially more volatile, phase of development.

Since the first rated transaction in 2016, solar ABS has expanded into a US$10bn sector, with KBRA having rated 37 transactions as of April 2025. Over the past decade, it has evolved from a niche ESG product into a mainstream securitised asset class, drawing steady demand from investors seeking long-duration, green-labelled consumer credit exposure.

KBRA notes that structuring practices have matured significantly. Recent deals such as GoodLeap 2023-4 and Mosaic Solar Loans 2023 featured longer WALs and lower prepayment expectations than earlier vintages, reflecting more predictable cashflows and improved credit stability. Prepayment rates have declined to 10-12% annually in recent deals, compared to upwards of 20% in early-vintage transactions.

The report also highlights increasing consistency in pool characteristics, including tighter FICO score bands, geographic diversification, and standardised documentation terms. For example, recent deals have reported average FICO scores in the 740-760 range, with some 2023-vintage deals reporting WALs exceeding seven years.

However, KBRA flags rising concerns about credit performance. In some newer deals, including Sunnova Hestia Solar Loan 2023-1, early-stage delinquencies were more than double those observed in earlier vintages within the first 12 months of performance, with charge-offs also exceeding original assumptions - particularly among loans originated in 2022-23.The rating agency warns that repayment behaviour across these cohorts may prove less resilient than earlier vintages, particularly under sustained consumer pressure and higher interest rates.

Originator and servicer concentration is also a growing issue. In 2021, French lender Credit Agricole concluded 82% of overall solar ABS volume 2013-2020 had been backed by pools originated by just five solar companies: Mosaic Loanpal (now GoodLeap), Sunnova, SolarCity and Sunrun. At present, just four of those originators - Mosaic, Sunrun, GoodLeap, and Sunnova – continue to dominate, and are reported to account for a similar majority of KBRA-rated issuance volumes alone. Any disruption to their operations or funding could have a significant knock-on effect across the sector.

Despite the credit headwinds of present, the long-term and intrinsic ESG credentials of the asset class remain intact. Most recent deals have been issued under formal green bond frameworks, with second-party opinions from the likes of Sustainalytics.  These structures have helped broaden access for ESG-focused investors. As KBRA puts it: “solar ABS stands out among consumer ABS sectors given its longer duration profile and the environmental use of proceeds, making it a natural fit for ESG-labelled investing.”

Even so, KBRA notes that early growth is now giving way to more selective investor scrutiny. As newer names enter the market and issuance volumes rise, more weight is being placed on underwriting standards, platform discipline and how well borrowers hold up under stress.

While KBRA stops short of sounding any alarms, it describes the sector as being at “a more mature phase in its development.” Adding: “recent trends suggest a need for more refined credit analysis and risk differentiation going forward.” As the market shifts from growth to consolidation, investor scrutiny of platform stability, underwriting quality and borrower resilience will be critical to sustained performance. The rating agency sees this as a turning point for the sector, with performance now hinging less on momentum and more on the fundamentals: stable servicing, tighter credit controls and how these - primarily fintech - platforms hold up under pressure.

For investors, solar ABS continues to offer a compelling opportunity in the ESG securitisation space. But as the market shifts into a new phase of consolidation, consistency in collateral, due diligence and closer scrutiny of individual platforms will matter more than ever.

Claudia Lewis

9 May 2025 10:09:29

News

Capital Relief Trades

MDB risk transfer gaining traction

ADB inks insurer agreement, while SST platform issues RFP

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has signed an agreement with 10 global insurers to mobilise up to US$2.75bn of private capital to support the bank’s lending for sustainable growth in Asia and the Pacific. The move follows a request for proposals from the African Development Bank (AfDB) and Development Bank of Southern Africa (DBSA) for a consulting firm to assist in developing their innovative multi-originator synthetic securitisation platform (SST platform), which will be structured as an evergreen vehicle and envisages issuing CLOs to secure financial guarantees.

The ADB agreement, known as the Master Framework Agreement for Sustainable Infrastructure, facilitates the growth of the private sector in the region and will allow the bank to increase its lending capacity to projects through the use of credit insurance. The partnership was signed with Tokio Marine Group, Chubb, AXA XL, Liberty Specialty Markets, Coface, Swiss Re, Everest, AXIS Capital, The Hartford and Allianz Trade.

These insurers will help derisk a portion of ADB’s loans to sustainable infrastructure projects. By allowing ADB to transfer credit risk from its portfolio to insurers’ balance sheets, this will free up ADB’s capital, manage its exposures and increase its lending capacity.

"This partnership demonstrates how innovative risk-sharing can attract billions in private capital for sustainable development,” comments ADB vp Bhargav Dasgupta. “By transferring credit risk to global insurers, ADB boosts its lending capacity and creates a replicable model for reducing infrastructure investment risks in emerging markets. This partnership highlights how insurance can mobilise private capital for climate-resilient and inclusive growth."   

The programme streamlines the underwriting and approval process for credit risk transfers, enabling ADB to mobilise cofinancing capacity more efficiently. ADB’s loans for infrastructure have supported private sector financing of solar and wind energy, sustainable transport and green data centres.

Meanwhile, the SST platform aims to optimise the balance sheets of AfDB and DBSA, mobilise private sector capital, provide regulatory capital relief on a revolving basis and set a precedent for collaboration among multiple originators. The AfDB and DBSA envisage contributing a combined reference portfolio of approximately US$2bn in the first phase of the initiative.

By pooling assets from multiple originators, it is hoped that the SST platform will achieve granularity and diversification, scalability in allowing new originators to join over time and standardisation to enhance investor confidence and participation. At the core of the SST platform is an SPV that will manage the issuance of CLOs to institutional investors, leveraging these cashflows to provide credit protection on the mezzanine tranche of the portfolio. The SPV will also issue financial guarantees to originators for their covered tranches, backed by the CLO proceeds or unfunded arrangements, depending on the tranche structure.

Portfolios will be tranched into senior, mezzanine and junior tranches, with the senior tranche retained by originators and mezzanine tranches offered to private sector investors. The platform will operate as a revolving vehicle, capable of recycling capital and replenishing its portfolio with new assets over time.

The project comprises two stages: an analytical assessment phase and a transaction preparation/execution phase. The AfDB and DBSA are seeking proposals by 23 May.

Corinne Smith

9 May 2025 12:28:46

News

Capital Relief Trades

Latest SRTx fixings released

One-direction

The unpredictability triggered by president Trump’s now infamous ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs continues to drive a notable increase in spread levels and broader market sentiment values.

Credit spreads widened consistently during the last month of the first quarter and the latest SRTx fixings suggest that the SRT market is following suit (albeit as it as is typical, lagging traditional liquid credit).

Last week, key market metrics such as the HY CDX widened out from 405 bp to 420 bp area on Wednesday morning after negative 1Q25 GDP. It then saw a 30 bp tightening in the subsequent 2 days, perhaps suggesting or implying that fundamentals are more solid than broad sentiment measures suggest.

SRT investors are nonetheless cautious about the effects of persistent inflation and tariffs on the liquidity needs of businesses in the medium term, and their potential to draw on sources all the way to the top of the capital structure – where SRT exposures usually sit. Consequently, investors might prioritise trading short-dated transactions to lock in premiums that accurately underwritten.

Regarding the macro and broader longer-term horizon, key questions remain about the best way to tap into an economic transformation, if investor bias for domestic assets will prevail, and investing in private markets amid structurally higher interest rates.

SRTx Spread Indexes have widened everywhere this month, in a similar fashion to last month (Large corporate: EU +3.2%, US +10.6%; SME: EU +5.4%, US +10.5%).

The SRTx Spread Indexes now stand at 858, 650, 857 and 1,125 for the SRTx CORP EU, SRTx CORP US, SRTx SME EU and SRTx SME US categories respectively, as of the 30 April valuation date.

The volatility fixings once again reflect the broader mood music, as the world financial system teeters under the draconian — and uncertain — tariff and fiscal policies of the second Trump administration (Large corporate: EU +1.0%, US +1.2%; SME: EU +5.8%, US -6.3%). However, the latest values reveal a more timid shift month-on-month.

The SRTx Volatility Index values now stand at 69, 71, 69 and 75 for the SRTx CORP VOL EU, SRTx CORP VOL US, SRTx SME VOL EU and SRTx SME VOL US indexes respectively.

 

The story or sentiment is equally similar for liquidity, with all figures or sentiment displaying a widening or under-performing  trend (Large corporate: EU +2.2%, US +4.2%; SME: EU +2.2%, US +7.7%).

The SRTx Liquidity Indexes stand at 64, 63, 64 and 70 across SRTx CORP LIQ EU, SRTx CORP LIQ US, SRTx SME LIQ EU and SRTx SME LIQ US respectively.

Finally, the latest credit risk fixings reveal mixed result. While the variations are tamer than the previous month, all figures remain firmly above the 50 benchmark (Large corporate: EU +6.7%, US -4.8%; SME: EU +-2.6%, US +5.6%).

The SRTx Credit Risk Indexes now stand at 67 for SRTx CORP RISK EU, 71 for SRTx CORP RISK US, 64 for SRTx SME RISK EU and 79 for SRTx SME RISK US.

SRTx coverage includes large corporate and SME reference pools across the EU and US economic regions. The index suite comprises a quantitative spread index - which is based on survey estimates for a representative transaction (the SRTx Benchmark Deal) that has specified terms for structure and portfolio composition - and three qualitative indexes, which measure market sentiment on pricing volatility, transaction liquidity and credit risk.

Specifically, the SRTx Volatility Indexes gauge market sentiment for the magnitude of fixed-spread pricing volatility over the near term. The index scale is 0-100, with levels above 50 indicating a higher proportion of respondents estimating volatility moving higher.

The SRTx Liquidity Indexes gauge market sentiment for SRT execution conditions in terms of successfully completing a deal in the near term. Again, the index scale is 0-100, with levels above 50 indicating a higher proportion of respondents estimating that liquidity is worsening.

Finally, the SRTx Credit Risk Indexes gauge market sentiment on the direction of fundamental SRT reference pool credit risk over the near term. The index scale is 0-100, with levels above 50 indicating a higher proportion of respondents estimating that credit risk is worsening.

The objective of the index suite is to depict changes in market sentiment, the magnitude of such change and the dispersion of market opinion around volatility, liquidity and credit risk.

The indexes are surveyed on a monthly basis and recalculated on the last trading day of the month. SCI is the index licensor and the calculation agent is Mark Fontanilla & Co.

For further information on SRTx or to register your interest as a contributor to the index, click here.

Vincent Nadeau

7 May 2025 08:44:42

News

Capital Relief Trades

SRT debut and pipeline prospects

EBRD eyes debut SRT as CEE region presents attractive opportunities

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) is preparing its first synthetic securitisation as an issuer, with a referenced portfolio of around €1bn and plans to bring the deal to market by early next year.

The EBRD will be tapping into the growing investor interest in deals from multilateral development banks (MDBs), as it aims to support the expanding SRT market in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE).

“There have been a few MDB issuances in the market and we know that there is a huge interest [...] We want to test the waters and see what the appetite is like,” Dariga Sambayeva-Haynes, associate director for EU structured finance at the EBRD tells SCI. 

“SRT would help us optimise capital and increase lending capacity, and the angle from which we approached this discussion as an MDB, is attracting a broader range of private investors,” she adds. 

Investor pipeline & opportunity set

The development bank has historically been involved in SRT transactions as an investor – mostly providing mezzanine tranche participation across countries such as Romania, Greece, Poland, and Croatia. 

“Our usual requirement is that the capital that has been released is redeployed to the real economy, and one of the areas we would like to continuously focus on is providing funding for eligible green projects in those countries,” Haynes comments.

Back in 2023, the EBRD supported Croatia’s first synthetic securitisation by RBI, providing an unfunded financial guarantee of €25.6m, covering the mezzanine tranche of a €366m portfolio of performing SME and corporate loans. 

Haynes is confident that more deals will come to market, noting that there have been several new issuances in Croatia, sparking further attention to the region.

Regarding asset classes, the EBRD remains primarily focused on SMEs and highly granular, diversified mid-cap portfolios, however Haynes sees opportunities across sectors.

“We have seen different asset classes being tested such as consumer loans issuance, Greek banks issuing shipping portfolios under SRT, etc. Some banks are also looking at commercial real estate, but it all depends on the risk-weight approach and how they can achieve an overall efficiency when they are trying to optimize balance sheets,” she says.

New issuers emerging in CEE

The EBRD believes that more banks are now looking to incorporate SRT as part of their capital enhancement toolkit. Amongst the countries that want to position themselves on the SRT map are Romania, with some existing issuance, as well as Bulgaria and Turkey. 

“There is an increasing interest from countries like Bulgaria and Romania. These are up-and-coming markets, with both repeat and new issuers on the horizon,” Haynes explains.

“Turkish banks have shown interest, but no SRTs have yet been brought to market. They have been actively exploring public markets last year as it has been very favourable” she continues.

Meanwhile, SRT pricing in the CEE region remains highly deal-specific and shaped by borrower quality, portfolio characteristics and structural considerations. 

“We try to take a more holistic approach,” Haynes notes. “There is not as much benchmarking data available as in Western Europe, so we need to go deeper into the individual deal dynamics.”

She thinks currency could be a factor, although it is easily managed within the EU, where banks typically have euro-denominated portfolios. The bigger hurdle, Haynes points, remains the limited issuance within the region.    

“What we want to see in the market over the next three to five years is a buildout. We want to see more issuance and we want to have that track record of the deals coming out of the market,” she states. 

She concludes: “We also expect discipline, transparency, as well as sophistication in types of products they could bring to market”.

Nadezhda Bratanova

7 May 2025 17:02:07

Talking Point

Asset-Backed Finance

Bank-Alt partnerships surge but longevity risks flagged

UBS-General Atlantic deal underscores momentum, yet many partnerships unlikely to stand the test of time, warns Moody's

The private credit market is on track to double to US$3trn by 2028, Moody’s confirmed during a media briefing earlier today. The sector is undergoing a structural shift, marked by the proliferation of bank-alternative asset manager partnerships – such as the UBS-General Atlantic tie-up announced this week – along with new evergreen funds, expanding retailisation and evolving regulatory frameworks that could catalyse a ‘breakout’ for insurers in Europe.

“Volatility is creating opportunities for private credit to step in where banks pull back or public markets hesitate. There’s ample dry powder, and managers are ready to deploy it, seizing openings when others pause,” said Antonello Aquino, EMEA head of private credit at Moody’s

Partnerships under scrutiny 

Bank-alternative asset manager partnerships increased sharply in 2024, as banks look to retain client origination while shifting credit risk to private lenders. Just this week, UBS and General Atlantic announced a new private credit tie-up, with UBS originating loans in North America and Western Europe and General Atlantic distributing them through its private credit strategies via a joint credit team. Yet, despite the rapid proliferation of such partnerships, concerns remain about their long-term sustainability.

“These partnerships may be tactically useful now, but many are unlikely to stand the test of time,” warned Marc Pinto, global head of private credit at Moody’s.

“The key question is whether there’s real alignment and mutual value. As markets get tighter, we’ll see which relationships truly hold up,” added Aquino.

A parallel wave of collaboration is forming between traditional and alternative asset managers, aimed at blending retail distribution with private markets expertise. These partnerships are fueling hybrid products that mix public and private assets to appeal to a wider investor base. 

“The lines between public and private markets continue to blur,” said Alexandra Aspioti, vp, senior analyst at Moody’s. “These joint ventures are designed to meet evolving investor appetites, but success will depend on alignment around fees, risk-sharing and long-term product sustainability.”

At the same time, evergreen funds are growing in popularity and launches are accelerating across Europe.

“These funds offer windows of liquidity but are still investing in illiquid assets, creating maturity transformation risk,” said Aspioti. “Managing this risk will be crucial, especially as more retail capital flows into the market. It’s definitely something to monitor closely," she noted.

Defaults manageable, for now

Despite a generally optimistic outlook, Moody’s raised its 12-month global default forecast from 2.5% to 3%, still within historical norms but reflecting increased macro risk. In a severe stress scenario, defaults could potentially climb as high as 7%. 

“There is still substantial downside risk,” said Jeanine Arnold, EMEA svp of leveraged finance at Moody’s. “The macro effects will take time to come through.”

Still, private credit’s flexibility and capital reserves are seen as strengths. “When private credit firms decide to deploy, they deploy,” said Pinto. “It's a very creative and agile sector.”

Ratings and transparency: slowly catching up

When discussing ratings and transparency in the current credit environment, Pinto noted that the private market has a highly sophisticated institutional investor base. However, he emphasised that this should be more widely distributed.

"There is an increasing demand for more ratings due to various factors driving this need," explained Pinto. "Although private credit lenders and sponsors are not heavily regulated, some of their clients, such as insurance companies, operate under strict regulations."

As regulation seeps into the private credit space, Pinto pointed out that some private credit lenders are primarily insurance companies in the US. "You rarely hear an alternative asset manager claim they are extremely highly regulated. However, their insurance affiliates are highly rated, even if many of their activities are not. This situation differs significantly from public markets, which are highly liquid and widely distributed."

When discussing regulation, transparency is inherently linked to private markets. Aquino highlighted the lack of transparency in private transactions.

He emphasised that their role extends beyond ratings to providing clarity on transaction processes and associated risks. Different stakeholders have varying views on market leverage and funding strength.

Pinto added that the emphasis will likely be on product development, as increased transparency in retail means consumers need to understand the risks, especially liquidity.

EU regulatory framework: breakout for insurers? 

The regulatory landscape remains a key factor influencing the shift in investment strategies among insurers. Currently, the regulatory framework in Europe disincentivises insurance companies from investing in many alternative asset classes that US insurance companies are encouraged to pursue.

"It's not that they are unwilling to take on these risks or lack interest in these asset classes; rather, the regulatory landscape prohibits them from doing so in a more business-friendly manner," said Aquino.

However, increasing regulatory flexibility could cause a ‘breakout’ in Europe, particularly in the UK via the Matching Adjustment, as insurers might find opportunities to expand their private credit exposure. While the journey from their current allocation (around 15%) to the 35% allocation seen in the US may take time, Moody’s highlighted a clear appetite for change. 

Marta Canini, Camilla Vitanza

 

8 May 2025 18:39:13

The Structured Credit Interview

Asset-Backed Finance

Bayview's fund finance arm taps into growing institutional demand

New platform aims to capitalise on the synergies between ABF and insurance mandates

Bayview Asset Management recently launched a fund finance investment platform, marking a significant step in its strategy to expand its asset-backed finance (ABF) offerings and meet the growing liquidity needs of GPs, LPs and institutional investors. The move was accompanied by the hiring of seasoned fund finance professionals Michael Timms and Colin Doherty, who will co-lead the platform.

"When I started here in 2023, I wanted to build out an insurance asset management platform,” says Nancy Mueller Handal, cio, insurance asset management at Bayview. “In the early days, I focused on residential whole loans, which is a big part of what Bayview does. But I also wanted to bring in asset classes I found incredibly attractive from my time managing MetLife’s private and alternative investments – fund finance being one of them.”

Bayview’s affiliated US$11bn insurance platform, Oceanview, had already been investing in fund finance deals, giving the firm a strong foundation.

"What we determined is we wanted to do that in a bigger way and do it for our client base," says Mueller Handal. "Between myself, Oceanview, Michael and Colin, we’ve collectively executed about US$50bn in fund finance transactions. It’s an area where we felt we had both the experience and opportunity to scale."

The new fund finance strategy integrates seamlessly into Bayview’s insurance-focused mandates. "Insurance companies traditionally invested in public fixed income and commercial real estate, but diversification has become a major focus," notes Mueller Handal.

"Asset-backed finance, particularly fund finance, offers very attractive characteristics for insurers – single-A or triple-B rated structures, better spreads than corporate IG and, importantly, very low correlation to other asset classes,” she adds.

Bayview’s ability to offer tailored deal structures is key. "You can structure the deals very well, especially if you're starting with a bespoke platform. That means fitting insurance company balance sheet needs exactly – spread, rating, diversification. That’s a huge value proposition."

Leveraging its flexible capital base, Bayview seeks to fill critical liquidity gaps for alternative managers.

"We can offer solutions across the entire spectrum – from low-LTV private credit for insurance clients to preferred equity or bespoke structures for our opportunity funds," she explains. "That open-slate approach, combined with deep structuring knowledge, lets us really meet the unique needs of GPs and LPs alike."

Built with a solutions-first mindset, the firm continues to apply that DNA to the market. "Bayview has always been a solutions-oriented platform – we were one of the first in SRTs. This is a natural extension of that DNA: solving capital needs creatively and responsibly," adds Mueller Handal.

While still in its early days, Bayview’s fund finance platform is built with scalability in mind. "We're starting in the US, but we're already looking into hiring a European team. The market is very well developed there, and it’s a logical next step," she says. "It's not about launching more products – it's about deepening our ability to meet our clients where they are, with what they need."

Bayview’s move into fund finance mirrors broader industry shifts. "Private credit used to mean just direct lending. Now, everyone’s talking about private ABF. We've been doing it for years under different labels, such as private ABS, but it’s finally getting the recognition it deserves," points out Mueller Handal.

Fund finance, in particular, is gaining traction even if not new. “My first NAV loan was back in 2016 – but the market has evolved. LPs are more comfortable with the structures, and there’s a broader understanding that it can be done safely for everyone involved," she says.

In a volatile macro environment, Bayview is staying true to its core strengths: "Our ABF strategy is always about quality. We’ve never chased yield by going out the credit spectrum," notes Mueller Handal. "We model consumer behaviour in-depth across all asset classes. We’re not in the business of trying esoteric or untested structures – we want a clear path to repayment and predictable outcomes."

That same mindset applies to fund finance. "Fund finance has matured. There's a clear methodology, and we’re confident in the spectrum of outcomes. We’re not here to chase upside – we’re here to deliver consistent, hedged returns and manage tail risk effectively."

As the fund finance market continues to evolve, Mueller Handal sees flexibility as a crucial differentiator for Bayview: "The key is not trying to put everyone in a cookie-cutter box. We designed this platform to be flexible, working with clients to craft solutions that are aligned, not imposed."

Bayview is betting that this flexible, client-aligned approach will provide an edge as fund finance becomes a central tool in alternative asset management. "The market will evolve depending on how LP allocations and liquidity trends play out, but we’re positioned to respond thoughtfully, not reactively," she says.

Marta Canini

7 May 2025 10:17:10

Market Moves

Structured Finance

Job swaps weekly: MUFG snaps up Barclays head of CLO primary

People moves and key promotions in securitisation

This week’s roundup of securitisation job swaps sees MUFG hiring Barclays’ head of CLO primary as md and head of CLO. Elsewhere, Starwood Capital Group has appointed a cio for its newly launched Starwood Insurance Strategies platform, while Obra Capital has promoted from within, as it also names a new cio. 

MUFG has appointed Barclays’ John Clements as md and head of CLO, working out of New York. He will report to md and international head of securitised products Ann Tran, and will lead origination, structuring and syndication for the firm's broadly syndicated, middle market, private credit, and infrastructure CLO platforms. 

Clements leaves his position as head of CLO primary at Barclays after seven years with the bank. He previously reached md and co-head of CLO primary at Citigroup during a 17-year spell with the business and had stints at JP Morgan Chase and Chase Manhattan Bank. 

Meanwhile, Starwood Capital Group has appointed Rob Allard as cio for Starwood Insurance Strategies, a new extension of Starwood Capital's credit platform. Based in New York, he brings more than 27 years of financial industry experience to his new position, including deep expertise in insurance markets, asset-backed finance and private assets. 

Allard previously helped set up and build Rothesay Asset Management North America, where he served as cio and head of Rothesay North America over the last seven years. Rothesay, originally founded within Goldman Sachs, was sold to Blackstone, GIC and Mass Mutual in 2017. 

Obra Capital has promoted Peter Polanskyj to cio, with the remit of chairing the firm’s investment committee, including oversight of operations across its portfolio. He was previously senior md and head of structured credit, having joined the firm in 2022. 

In addition to leading several new product launches, Polanskyj has demonstrated a proven track record of prudent capital stewardship, leveraging over 28 years of experience investing in a variety of structured investments to achieve a net growth rate for Obra’s insurance special situations strategy that has outpaced the firm’s initial expectations.   

In addition, Matt Roesler has been promoted to senior md and head of multi-sector credit. He continues to lead the management of Obra’s multi-sector credit, liability-driven and other insurance portfolios. Greg Nicolls has also been promoted to senior md and head of business development and investor relations. 

Greg Pospodinis has departed White & Case to launch Nebula Capital, a new investment platform focused on private credit and structured finance in the Middle East. Pospodinis spent nearly a decade in the firm’s capital markets team in Dubai and will continue to be based in the region. Nebula aims to tap into the growing demand for bespoke capital solutions across the private credit and securitised products space in the GCC region. 

Schulte Roth & Zabel has appointed Joseph Gambino as a partner in its finance practice, based in the New York office. Gambino brings over two decades of experience in structured credit, with a particular focus on CLOs and specialty finance transactions. 

His practice focuses on advising arrangers and collateral managers in the CLO space, with additional expertise in regulatory issues and structured lending facilities. He also brings deep knowledge in esoteric ABS and specialty finance transactions. 

Gambino joins the firm from Linklaters, where he was a partner in the capital markets group. Prior to his tenure at Linklaters, he held roles at Alston & Bird and Cadwalader, and worked in-house at Merrill Lynch, Stifel Financial Corp and FSI Capital. 

Sidley has hired former A&O Shearman duo and securitisation specialists Chris Jackson and Luke Maiman as partner and counsel respectively in its global finance group, based in New York.  

Jackson leaves his role as partner at A&O Shearman after eight years with the firm, having previously worked at Ashurst and Mayer Brown. He focuses on new issue, refinancing and reset CLO transactions; rated and unrated warehouses; term leverage facilities backed by portfolios of broadly syndicated, private credit, and middle market loans; rated feeder funds; and risk retention financing solutions. 

Maiman has also been with A&O Shearman for eight years and leaves his position as counsel at the firm. His practice focuses on broadly syndicated and middle-market CLOs, debt fund financings, and other structured loan facilities. Maiman also previously worked at Ashurst. 

Katten has hired Karen Anzalone as a partner in its structured finance and securitisation practice in New York. Anzalone brings specialist expertise in CMBS, with a particular focus on single-asset single-borrower (SASB) transactions. She joins from Cadwalader, where she spent the last decade in the structured finance group as an associate. 

Clifford Chance has promoted Thea Gausel to partner within the derivatives and structured products team, based in London. She began at the firm as a trainee solicitor in August 2009 and specialises in private credit, with a focus on SRT, credit insurance and credit risk mitigation. 

Priya Desai has moved from MetLife Investment Management’s public structured finance group to its private structured finance team, effective this week. She continues in her role as md, which she has held since joining the firm in 2021, and will now focus on asset-backed finance (ABF). At MetLife, Desai has led ABS credit underwriting across a US$10bn portfolio covering consumer and esoteric assets. Her broader career spans structured products banking at JP Morgan and Lehman Brothers, trading at Shinkin Central Bank, and ABS structuring and capital markets roles at Deutsche Bank and various fintech platforms. 

Vivek-Anand Dattani has been appointed deputy CEO of ARC Ratings UK/EU. His focus will be on the commercial activities of ARC Ratings in Europe and the UK and will report to Oliver Howard, ceo of ARC Ratings (EU/UK) and CEO of ARC Risk Group. 

In other ratings agency news, Dan Chambers has joined Morningstar DBRS as sector lead for new assets, based in New York. As a credit rating officer, Chambers will lead the development of credit rating approaches and assignment of credit ratings for new and emerging asset classes across the US structured finance market. 

Prior to joining Morningstar DBRS, he was an md at Fitch Ratings. His 30 years of experience in the securitisation market have been focused on new structured finance sectors, including digital infrastructure, residential solar, transportation, agricultural loans, music and other royalties, with an emphasis on commercial asset classes subject to operating risk. 

Chambers will report to Chris D'Onofrio, md responsible for the US ABS group. 

Real estate lender Leumi UK has appointed Neil Kermode as business development director. In his new role, Kermode will be responsible for generating new business leads across the real estate market with a particular focus on large loans. 

He joins Leumi UK from Canary Wharf Group, where he worked for over 26 years, most recently as director and head of development finance. In that role, he was responsible for the structuring, origination, negotiation and implementation of complex development finance structures, including construction finance facilities, investment facilities and unsecured lending. 

Maria Barros Moreira has joined Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank as a vp within its securitisation and fund finance team, based in Dubai. With more than seven years of experience in SRT, funding issuances and warehouse financings, she was previously a securitisation structurer associate at Santander in London. Before that, she worked at Canada Life Asset Management, Fitch and Banco Português de Fomento. 

Morgan Stanley’s Melania Maffei has joined TwentyFour Asset Management’s ABS team in London, focusing on portfolio management. Maffei leaves her role as vice president at Morgan Stanley after three and a half years working in the firm’s loan solutions and securitisation group. She previously spent four years at Barclays Investment Bank. 

And finally, Andrew Chasen’s CRT Hub has brought Patrick Tadie onboard as an advisor. Tadie was previously evp, global capital markets and global structured finance at Wilmington Trust in New York, which he joined in October 2014. Before that, he worked at BNY Mellon, Freddie Mac, First Union National Bank and Prudential Home Mortgage. 

Corinne Smith, Claudia Lewis, Marta Canini, Kenny Wastell, Ramla Soni

9 May 2025 14:05:23

structuredcreditinvestor.com

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