Structured Credit Investor

Print this issue

 Issue 856 - 4th August

Print this Issue

Contents

 

News Analysis

Structured Finance

New tricks

Banks' backing boosts AI utilisation in ABS

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is increasingly being embraced by banks seeking to improve workflows and support securitisation processes. But other benefits of the technology are also becoming apparent in the current challenging economic environment.

“We knew mathematically how an AI model could be used, but now we can actually see the benefit of it,” explains Altin Kadareja, co-founder and ceo of global securitisation fintech Cardo AI.

In fact, the benefit of integrating AI into securitisation processes for market participants is now tangible, according to the firm’s findings. “Our benefit across the whole securitisation [sector] is close to on average 80bp, with 50bp cost reduction and 30bp of alpha generation, through better asset allocation and structure definition. So, not only are we delivering benefits to the investors, but also to the cost structure,” Kadareja observes.

Banks are chief among those showing strong interest in integrating AI into analysis, as a means of dealing with the now extensive amounts of data available to structured finance market participants. “The amount of new data created worldwide in the last two years is equal to that used in the whole of human history – and with AI, we can now use the data to better understand and predict critical insights on securitisation workflows,” Kadareja explains. “We are seeing much more openness, as several banks are really embarking on this journey with us, or with our competitors.”

Such sentiment is seemingly shared across the structured finance market by AI innovators. Paul Limanni, chief capital officer at Pagaya, agrees: “Frankly, we’ve seen more willingness and openness – as well as an acceptance from the investment community and origination market that in 20 years’ time, AI is going to matter more so than it does today.”

Pagaya works with a variety of clients, including some of the largest banks in the US, such as Ally Bank. “Giving banks and these legacy institutions the fintech power presents a huge opportunity to act as fast as any other fintech on a larger scale. But it does present a lot of challenges too. You need to be integrated with the bank’s system, with the external parties, and you need to be able to work flexibly too,” Limanni suggests.

He continues: “Banks don’t want to get left behind. Even though they are larger and a little slower to move, they want to access and integrate AI because they see it as a growth opportunity. Banks all share a desire to expand originations in a way that is more equitable for their underlying customers, and AI is a great way to do that.”

For these AI-focused fintechs, usability remains a chief concern for implementing the new technological strategy – as seen across the board with digital innovation within the structured finance market (SCI 2 February). “We offer an incredibly friendly tool for them to get into that space in a very capital-light way,” explains Limanni.  “We’re letting them learn the technology with us, and by taking on the capital risk for them, it’s pretty easy to get them on board – and through that ecosystem, not only do the banks win, but so do we.”

Cardo AI similarly strives to make its clients’ experience smoother, as Kadareja explains: “Things like reducing the time needed to manage data, clean data and use AI models to inform better decisions. There is no reason for not having, or not working on a modern securitisation market in 2023."

Current market stressors, both within the realm of structured credit and on a macro-level, have proven the value of AI within structured finance. “If you ask anyone what the world has been like in the last 12 months, they will tell you it has been challenging,” states Limanni. “It’s been a funky rate environment, funky macro environment, and no one wants to be behind with the direction things are going in.”

AI is utilised by Pagaya to both develop algorithms and methodologies to evaluate consumer credit and modelling, as well as to support capital raising as a fund manager and securitisation business. “Not only have we persisted through that, but we have continued to bring in deals, find value and bring material size and investment opportunity to the market,” adds Limanni.

Founded in 2016, Pagaya manages more than US$2bn of capital and hedge fund strategies, and has placed US$17bn in ABS transactions backed by unsecured consumer loans, auto loans and single-family rental real estate. “For every single asset class we work with, we have an AI engine that effectively selects and creates assets or partners - so what people are investing in is our ability for the AI to pick over a short period of time,” Limanni explains. “Effectively, from all the information we take from our partners, we rank it in accordance to investor preference in our structure to create – and AI is the only way that we can run this in a really efficient, methodical way that allows us to select now.”

Pagaya’s most recent deal, a US$800m ABS dubbed PAID 2023-5, is one of the firm’s largest issuances. “The market does feel like it’s at a tipping point where people are feeling like there is a very compelling landscape to invest,” Limanni observes. “I wish spreads and rates were lower, but we feel pretty good about the current environment and where we are in it today.”

Kadareja agrees: “The changing credit landscape and all these new ways of securitising future cashflows require new specialised models, new logic, new risk analysis, new pricing analyses, new foundation knowledge, and of course new AI models to rate and optimise them.”

Cardo AI has been dedicated to securing just that since its founding in 2018. “One very important element is asset underlying cashflows. For example, predicting cashflows on trade receivables data, you will not only have the invoice, borrower and seller data, but also the IOT data on where is the specific good positioned within the supply chain – has it arrived, what is the probability of its arrival and so on,” says Kadareja.

“Another interesting element to optimise is the structure of the securitisation itself, the attachment points, notes pricing, waterfall structure, credit enhancement, limits and covenants,” he adds.

Firms that have been involved with AI for a while appear to have a substantial early mover advantage. However, the biggest risk for AI is that it is coupled with a business that makes commercial sense.

“In 2018, when we first rolled out some of these structures, there were a lot of eyebrows raised over being an AI selection engine that networks, and does pre-funded securitisations that don’t own assets until they buy them in three-to-six months’ time,” considers Limanni. “But over the last five years, we’ve taken what looked like an illiquid structure and philosophy of investing, and turned it into the flagship form of investing in spaces like the unsecured personal loan market.”

Looking ahead, Cardo AI intends to not only be beneficial across existing asset classes, but could also be instrumental in supporting investors and banks in new asset classes. “We want to extend and reach into as many different asset classes as possible,” says Kadareja. “We’re looking into new asset classes like solar panels, music rights, sports rights and esoteric asset classes too – which has huge potential for future growth.”

As AI becomes increasingly understood in nomenclature, so do concerns surrounding the technology’s power and its accuracy. Kadareja notes that AI exists not to replace people, but to improve workflows and support securitisation market professionals in their day-to-day work.

“Technology is not only supposed to serve as a reporting tool, but also a competitive feature – and you need to be an active participant in your decision-making,” he concludes. “AI can allow people to focus on what is really important. Let the machine deal, assess the data and allow humans to focus on tackling harder decisions, rather than wasting time on excel crunching the data standardisation.”

Claudia Lewis

31 July 2023 16:24:53

back to top

News Analysis

Capital Relief Trades

Closing the gap

SRT 'unlevel playing field' called out

A reduction of the p-factor is inarguably positive for IRB banks and the significant risk transfer space in general, as these banks account for the bulk of synthetic securitisation issuance volume (SCI 25 July). However, the absence of changes positively affecting banks under the standardised approach points to an unlevel playing field across the market.

The hurdles for standardised banks entering into SRT are different than those of IRB banks, but tranche thickness and the resulting cost are always key. The impact of an SRT transaction for a standardised bank is also usually more pronounced than for larger IRB banks. As such, the impact of any beneficial changes to the framework in which these can be undertaken is more likely to be magnified in terms of helping the real economy.

“[The agreement to halve the p-factor] is positive news if you are an IRB bank,” says Robert Bradbury, head of structured credit execution and advisory at Alvarez & Marsal. “It makes SRT more competitive under the output floor and therefore, as an IRB bank, it is a good thing.”

However, Bradbury argues that a combination of halving the p-factor without any further fundamental regulatory changes to standardised banks will inevitably exacerbate the unlevel playing field in the SRT market. “As a standardised bank, it does nothing. What the output floor was doing was bringing IRB banks and standardised banks closer together, in terms of benchmarking and access to instruments. This pulls them apart again.”

He continues: “One of the elements behind Basel 4 was to desensitise the IRB models, so that they became less advantageous against the standardised model. There is still a significant incentive to be an IRB bank, including because you get even more cost-effective access to capital through SRT than a standardised bank does - though noting the complexity and cost of maintaining this status can be a drawback, in some cases.”

Standardised banks make up a substantial proportion of European lending and SRT is starting to play a more material role in capital management for a wider swathe of market participants than in prior years, especially given broader market conditions and the implications this has had for access to other forms of capital. Particularly in the absence of deep and liquid public securitisation markets, more could be done to avoid divergence among European banks in their ability to access key risk mitigation tools.

While STS goes some way toward providing assistance to standardised banks, Bradbury argues that such a view doesn’t capture the full picture. He states: “There is STS for IRB as well, so IRB banks get to layer on both benefits. As such, while a very important and helpful feature, STS is limited in narrowing the effective gap.”

He continues: “It is absolutely true that STS can dramatically improve the economics for a standardised bank over non-STS. But again, it’s not about whether standardised banks can engage in SRT efficiently, which they absolutely can. This is more the topic as to how far apart the banks are. STS narrows the gap, but it doesn’t close it.”

In terms of any outstanding regulatory items that could reduce the gap between standardised and IRB banks, previously proposed changes to STS for all banks would potentially be instrumental (SCI 22 November 2022).

Vincent Nadeau

1 August 2023 14:43:36

News Analysis

CLOs

Defensive profiles

Tactical secondary CLO opportunities highlighted

The second half of 2023 is expected to remain a story of strong technicals with weaker fundamentals for the CLO market. Such a scenario should lead to further decompression within the CLO capital structure, with investment grade tranches outperforming more junior tranches.

David Nochimowski, head of global CLO and ABS strategy at BNP Paribas, notes that CLO market technicals have been supportive as a result of slow primary market activity - due to challenging arbitrage conditions - and the attractive relative value of CLOs within broader credit markets. In terms of fundamentals, defaults are rising (nearing 2%), but the pace of deterioration has been relatively slow and has yet to reach a point that could materially challenge CLO performance. The cov-lite nature of loans, the extended maturity profile and heavy amend-and-extend activity may limit the peak default rate in this cycle - although that would be to the detriment of recovery rates, which are likely to be closer to 50%.

As such, BNP Paribas remains constructive on CLO investment grade risk, but sees better value in European CLOs versus US CLOs and in AAA/AA tranches versus A/BBB tranches in the US. Against this backdrop, Nochimowski highlights tactical opportunities in the secondary market for IG tranches, based on two defensive profiles - high coupon bonds issued after 1H22 offering quality carry and fast deleveraging bonds out of their reinvestment periods that offer price upside.

Nochimowski defines a ‘high coupon’ as being above the median level for the respective universe and currently trading at a premium to par. He estimates the ‘high coupon’ CLO bond universe to be around US$23bn in the US and around €2bn in Europe.

Meanwhile, about a third of all CLOs have exited their RPs, with the pace of amortisation a key driver of performance for CLO bonds. Indeed, IG tranches with fast deleveraging profiles and trading at a discount to par offer an attractive return (given the relatively flat credit curve), limited extension risk (given the static nature of the deals) and price upside potential from a rating upgrade or a call.

A recent BNP Paribas study shows that ‘fully static’ deals – those that fully restrict new reinvestments due to the failure of some tests – tend to repay 2-3 times faster than those that can reinvest. Based on the bank’s sample, an estimated 25%-30% of the European and US CLOs out of their RP are currently restricted from reinvesting. These deals have become fully static after failing some of their WARF, WAL or triple-C tests.

Notably, BNP Paribas’ Legal Restrictive Score – a tool the bank employs to extract value from CLO documents – highlights the attractive deleveraging opportunities of 2H18 vintage deals for CLO debt tranches, both in Europe and the US. These deals tend to have relatively restrictive documentation and the majority are due to exit their RPs by the end of this year.

Nochimowski’s revised CLO new issue volume projections are US$95bn in the US and €20bn in Europe for 2023. He anticipates that refinancing/reset activity could pick up towards the end of the year, driven by the refinancing of some 2022 deals exiting their non-call period. BNP Paribas’ refi/reset volume projections are US$10bn in the US and €2bn in Europe.

Corinne Smith

4 August 2023 11:46:10

News

Structured Finance

SCI Start the Week - 31 July

A review of SCI's latest content

Last week's news and analysis
After the gold rush
Digital revenues resuscitate music royalty ABS
Get in, Granville
BNS brings much heralded SRT deal, latest Canadian to set sail
Job swaps weekly: Angelo Gordon beefs up in structured credit
People moves and key promotions in securitisation
Legacy issue
ECJ ruling a boon for Polish CRTs
Less punitive
Halving of p-factor sparks SRT optimism
Litigation looms
Investor disputes to rise as CMBS valuations decline
Mortgage penalty
Higher risk weighting for high LTV loans boosts SRT
PRA launches SecReg consultation
Targeted adjustments not an overhaul
Risk transfer round-up - 27 July
The week's CRT developments and deal news
'Transformational' merger agreed
Rithm acquires Sculptor & PGIM launches CLO ETF

Recent premium research to download
Emerging UK RMBS – July 2023
The return of 100% mortgages and the rise of later-life lenders herald an evolving UK RMBS landscape. This Premium Content article investigates how mortgage borrowers’ changing needs are being addressed.

Office CMBS – July 2023
The office CMBS market is grappling with headwinds brought about by declining occupancy rates and rising costs of borrowing. However, as this Premium Content article finds, the European CRE market may not be as badly affected as its US counterpart.

CRT counterparty risk – May 2023
Recent banking instability is unlikely to result in contractual changes in synthetic securitisations, but structural divergences are emerging. This Premium Content article investigates further.

‘Socialwashing’ concerns – May 2023
Concerns around ‘socialwashing’ remain, despite recent advances in defining social securitisations. This Premium Content article investigates why the ‘social’ side of ESG securitisation is more complex than its ‘green’ cousin.

European solar ABS – May 2023
Continental solar ABS is primed for growth as governments and consumers seek energy independence. This Premium Content article investigates.

All of SCI’s premium content articles can be found here.

SCI In Conversation podcast
In the latest episode, Terry Lanson, an md at Seer Capital and an established luminary in the regulatory capital relief trade market, discusses the prospects for further growth and development of the SRT market in the US. Lanson believes that, in the wake of the failure of several regional names and renewed capital pressures on US banks in general, there are grounds for optimism.
The podcast can be accessed wherever you usually get your podcasts, including Apple Podcasts and Spotify (just search for ‘SCI In Conversation’), or by clicking here.

SCI Markets
SCI Markets provides deal-focused information on the global CLO and Australian/European/UK ABS/MBS primary and secondary markets. It offers intra-day updates and searchable deal databases alongside CLO BWIC pricing and commentary. Please email Tauseef Asri at SCI for more information or to set up a free trial here.

SRTx benchmark
SCI has launched SRTx (Significant Risk Transfer Index), a new benchmark that measures the estimated prevailing new-issue price spread for generic private market risk transfer transactions. Calculated and rebalanced on a monthly basis by Mark Fontanilla & Co, the index provides market participants with a benchmark reference point for pricing in the private risk transfer market by aggregating issuer and investor views on pricing. For more information on SRTx or to register your interest as a contributor, click here.

Upcoming SCI events
Esoteric ABS Seminar
12 September 2023

Women In Risk Sharing
18 October 2023

SCI's 9th Annual Capital Relief Trades Seminar
19 October 2023, London

European CRE Finance Seminar
28 November 2023

31 July 2023 10:55:50

News

Structured Finance

SCI In Conversation podcast: Naomi Prasad, Pemberton Capital Advisors

We discuss the hottest topics in securitisation today...

In this episode of the SCI In Conversation podcast, Pemberton Capital Advisors director Naomi Prasad discusses whether we should we be talking about “ESG” or “sustainability” in the context of the securitisation market and which ESG strategies are proving effective in the CLO management space. She also outlines how sustainability can be better integrated at both the corporate and individual level.

Additionally, we highlight a couple of recent Premium Content articles published by SCI. One article explores how the UK RMBS landscape is set to evolve in the coming years as new mortgage products emerge. Specifically, it highlights the return of 100% LTV mortgages and the rise of specialist later-life lenders in the jurisdiction, as providers seek to address borrowers’ changing needs.

The other Premium Content article contrasts performance across the office CMBS segments in Europe and the US. It argues that the European commercial real estate market may not be as badly affected as the US market by the headwinds facing the sector, due to differing attitudes towards hybrid working, commuter culture and the supply of modern office stock.

The episode can be accessed here, as well as wherever you usually get your podcasts, including Apple Podcasts and Spotify (just search for ‘SCI In Conversation’).

31 July 2023 14:53:12

News

Capital Relief Trades

Risk transfer round-up - 3 August

The week's CRT developments and deal news

Market news
Risk Control has received funding from the MDB Challenge Fund for two projects with the objective of helping Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) build on the recommendations of the G20’s Independent Review of MDB Capital Adequacy Frameworks (CAF). One of the projects will deliver analysis to support MDB risk transfer, creating insights and technical tools for balance sheet optimisation (BSO).

The project aims to help investors, shareholders and MDB boards to understand the potential of such transactions and tap a sustainable risk-bearing capacity from investors. It will generate four research papers, tackling key questions that hamper further expansion in MDB risk transfer activity, including how MDB risk transfer transactions should be rated and priced in the light of preferred creditor treatment (SCI 15 March 2022).

The project will also assist MDBs by developing the digital architecture necessary to implement risk transfers. By working with the MDBs that are operational in risk transfer, Risk Control will create data standards, templates and tools necessary for providing investors with data to evaluate risk transfer transactions.

This will include a set of XML templates for MDB loans suitable for stable, repeated exchanges of data with participating developed-country investment institutions. The templates will be comparable to those provided by central banks and ESMA.

The second Risk Control project will benchmark capital adequacy across MDBs to increase transparency for MDB shareholders, boards and management, while providing metrics of credit standing that are alternatives to agency ratings.

The projects are due to be completed by end-April 2024.

People moves
Miller has appointed Oscar Holloway as head of Miller Europe, to support the firm’s strategic growth ambitions. Based in London, he will report to Miller International md Mike Papworth.

Holloway joins from Marsh, where he was svp and global head of credit portfolio solutions, including synthetic securitisation. In this role, he was tasked with providing structured finance advice to banks, corporates and funds.

Pipeline update
Echoing last week’s sentiments (SCI 27 July), one capital relief trade market participant confirms that August is set to be “fairly quiet,” adding that “we should see a couple of deals launch in September.” However, he anticipates a particularly busy fourth-quarter spike in SRT issuance and activity.

“Anecdotally, I understand that there is going to be a flurry of transactions in November and December. The feedback from that market is that investors will be completely resource-blocked from September onwards – not from capital constraints, but from a resource perspective, they will be assessing enough deals all together that they just won’t really have capacity for that many more.”

Among the deals believed to be being readied is an LBBW transaction referencing a circa €5bn portfolio of German commercial real estate exposures. BNP Paribas is understood to be arranging the deal.

CRT new issue pipeline

Originator Asset class Asset location  Expected
Banco Sabadell Corporate loans  Spain 2H23
Deutsche Bank Leveraged loans Europe, US 2H23
Eurobank Corporate loans  Greece 2H23
Intesa Sanpaolo Corporate loans  Italy 2H23
JPMorgan Corporate loans  US 2H23
LBBW CRE loans Germany 2H23
Lloyds Bank SME loans UK 2H23
mBank Consumer loans  Poland 2H23
Unicredit  Residential mortgages  Italy 2H23

Rating actions
Fitch has revised its rating watch on the double-B plus rated class M1 and M2 notes issued by PacWest Reference Notes Series 2022-1 to evolving from negative, in line with the same action on Pacific Western Bank's rating. The ratings on the notes are directly linked to, and therefore capped at, the long-term issuer default rating of Pacific Western Bank (currently double-B plus/rating watch evolving).

Fitch placed Pacific Western Bank on rating watch evolving on 31 July, due to uncertainty surrounding the merger between Pacific Western Bank's parent company, PacWest Bancorp, and Banc of California. A US$1bn transaction has been announced, which is expected to close before 2Q24. According to the terms, Pacific Western Bank will merge with Banc of California and assume its name.

The rating agency reports that over the last 10 months, performance of PacWest 2022-1 has been stable and delinquencies of 30 days or more remain below 1%. There have been no losses incurred within the pool; however, the pool has only paid down by about 4.20%, as prepayments remain low and flat.

SCI SRTx indexes

 

For more information on the Significant Risk Transfer Index (SRTx), click here.

3 August 2023 15:30:54

News

Capital Relief Trades

Happy birthday STACR

The GSE CRT market hits 10th birthday

Last week marked the tenth anniversary of the GSE CRT market, as, on July 23, 2013, Freddie Mac priced its inaugural US$500m STACR trade.

This debut transaction, STACR 2013-DN1, matured at end of last month.

Fannie Mae got in on the act a couple of months later when it sold its debut CAS deal, dubbed CAS 2013-01, which is due to mature in October.

In the last decade, Freddie has transferred over USS108bn of credit risk on more than US$3.3trn of mortgages from the US taxpayer to the private investor. Some 136 deals have been priced in the last decade.

“The first STACR and ACIS transactions in 2013 did more than help Freddie Mac manage its credit risk. These innovative products created a new asset class and launched a thriving market for mortgage-backed credit risk transfer securities and credit reinsurance,” said Mike Reynolds, vice president of single-family credit risk transfer, in a statement.

These products have delivered a healthy return for buyers, which has helped augment the original pool of investors.

According to research conducted by Mark Fontanilla and Company, an investor which had bought the first 2013 deals would have enjoyed a total return of 83.2%, or an annualized rate of 6.24%. As he points out, this is very reasonable indeed given the significant oscillations of rates and yields in the credit market in the last decade.

“How time flies! After a decade, the methodical progression of the GSE CRT market, from inception in 2013, to a pillar mortgage securitization sector today, has been the result in large part to robust and transparent disclosures, steady issuance programs, and healthy investor adoption,” Fontanilla told SCI.

In 2023, Freddie Mac plans to sell between US$3.5bn and US$5bn in the CRT market - including STACR and ACIS reinsurance deals. This is sharply less than was seen in the heady days of 2020 and 2021 but much lower mortgage origination has diminished the need.

Simon Boughey

3 August 2023 16:37:55

News

Insurance-linked securities

Rare ILN spotted

Essent Guaranty has priced the first insurance-linked note (ILN) - a US$253.2m deal dubbed Radnor Re 2023-1 - that the market has seen in almost a year.

The last deals in the ILN market were a US$201m trade from Arch and a US$238m deal from Essent, both of which were priced in September 2022.

Radnor Re 2023-1 consists of four tranches, which refer to a pool of 133,879 fully amortizing first lien fixed and floating rate mortgages.

There is a high BB US$89.6m M1A tranche, a low BB US$74m M1B, a B-rated US$70.1m M2 and a B-rated US$19.5m B1.

This latest trade represents the ninth ILN from Essent.

Only four ILNs came to market in 2022, compared to 14 in 2021 and 12 in 2020. Moreover, deal sizes were significantly smaller than in previous years.

The ILN market shut down due to much greater execution costs as spreads rose. Echoing developments in the GSE CRT market, mortgage insurers turned increasingly to the reinsurance market to offset risk.

Some US$3.4bn was priced in the reinsurance market across 16 deals last year. Reinsurance went from being just 25% of the mortgage insurance risk transfer market to 75%.

Leading reinsurer Guy Carpenter predicts that there will be more issuance in the ILN market in the second half of the year, but deal size will remain constrained. It believes total issuance will be less than US$2bn.

Simon Boughey

1 August 2023 20:23:55

News

RMBS

Triple test

UK RMBS can withstand stresses 'never seen in history'

A new TwentyFour Asset Management analysis shows that a benchmark triple-B rated UK RMBS bond with 2.3% of credit enhancement could withstand almost three times the recent Bank of England stress test. Considering a triple-B rated RMBS bond currently yields over 9%, the firm consequently believes that this asset class continues to be one of the most attractive in the fixed income market at present. 

The TwentyFour AM analysis recreates the BoE stress test from a mortgage default and loss perspective and applies it to a benchmark triple-B rated UK RMBS bond. Many assumptions in the BoE scenario are more severe than experienced during the GFC, including inflation peaking at 17%, monetary policy rate peaking at 6%, GDP contracting by 5%, unemployment doubling and residential property prices dropping by 31%. TwentyFour AM’s stress test focused on the historical peak in cumulative foreclosures when unemployment was at its highest level.

On a rolling seven-year basis, the historical peak in cumulative foreclosures was in 1996 at 3.85%, versus a seven-year average unemployment number at the same time of 9%. The firm rounded the figure up to 4% in its scenario.

Furthermore, it applied a 20% loss given default, which implies a house price decline of 50% - over twice the historical worst-case GFC scenario - and assumed that it takes 12 months to foreclose on a property.

The analysis implies that 4% cumulative defaults over a three-year period (representing the typical life of an RMBS deal) on a £450m pool results in £18m of defaults, which leads to £3.6m of losses when applying the 20% LGD. This £3.6m accounts for just 0.8% of the £450m pool. Even more punitively, the inclusion of lost interest on defaulted loans for one year would see losses rise to 1% - which would still provide 2.3x protection.

“This is just a simplistic analysis, but we ran the same assumptions on our far more complex modelling tool using various actual bonds and we got very similar results. Overall, this type of analysis gives us confidence that the UK RMBS market can withstand stresses beyond those applied by the BoE and never seen in history,” TwentyFour AM concludes.

Claudia Lewis

2 August 2023 11:06:16

News

SRTx

Latest SRTx fixings released

Stabilising trend continues in August index values

The latest fixings for the SRTx (Significant Risk Transfer Index) have been released. The stabilising trend seen across the sub-indexes over the last few months generally appears to have continued, albeit views are slightly mixed on certain segments.

Spreads across the SRTx Spread Indexes have stabilised to improved month-on-month, reflecting the economic backdrop. Values now stand at 1,175bp (representing a -0.1% change), 913bp (-0.2%), 1,201bp (-4.4%) and 1,222bp (-1.2%) for the SRTx CORP EU, SRTx CORP US, SRTx SME EU and SRTx SME US indexes respectively, as of the 1 August valuation date.

Similarly, survey responses for the SRTx Credit Risk Index imply a universal opinion that conditions are improving, in line with performance and losses. The indexes now stand at 50 (representing a -22.2% change), 40 (-41.8%), 54 (-16.7%) and 50 (-27.3%) across SRTx CORP RISK EU, SRTx CORP RISK US, SRTx SME RISK EU and SRTx SME RISK US respectively.

While values for the SRTx Liquidity Indexes and SRTx Volatility Indexes ticked up marginally on the month, survey responses remain below 50, indicating a neutral view going forward. Based on this month’s values, the SRTx Liquidity Indexes now stand at 39 (representing a +10% change), 40 (+60%), 39 (-8.3%) and 44 (+31.3%) across SRTx CORP LIQ EU, SRTx CORP LIQ US, SRTx SME LIQ EU and SRTx SME LIQ US respectively. Values for the SRTx Volatility Indexes are 46 (representing a +8.3% change), 40 (+6.7%), 46 (+8.3%) and 38 (no change) for SRTx CORP VOL EU, SRTx CORP VOL US, SRTx SME VOL EU and SRTx SME VOL US respectively.

SRTx coverage includes large corporate and SME reference pools across the EU and US economic regions. The index suite comprises a quantitative spread index - which is based on survey estimates for a representative transaction (the SRTx Benchmark Deal) that has specified terms for structure and portfolio composition - and three qualitative indexes, which measure market sentiment on pricing volatility, transaction liquidity and credit risk.

Specifically, the SRTx Volatility Indexes gauge market sentiment for the magnitude of fixed-spread pricing volatility over the near term. The index scale is 0-100, with levels above 50 indicating a higher proportion of respondents estimating volatility moving higher.

The SRTx Liquidity Indexes gauge market sentiment for SRT execution conditions in terms of successfully completing a deal in the near term. Again, the index scale is 0-100, with levels above 50 indicating a higher proportion of respondents estimating that liquidity is worsening.

Finally, the SRTx Credit Risk Indexes gauge market sentiment on the direction of fundamental SRT reference pool credit risk over the near term. The index scale is 0-100, with levels above 50 indicating a higher proportion of respondents estimating that credit risk is worsening.

The objective of the index suite is to depict changes in market sentiment, the magnitude of such change and the dispersion of market opinion around volatility, liquidity and credit risk.

The indexes are surveyed on a monthly basis and recalculated on the last trading day of the month. SCI is the index licensor and the calculation agent is Mark Fontanilla & Co.

For further information on SRTx or to register your interest as a contributor to the index, click here.

Corinne Smith

3 August 2023 18:33:29

Market Moves

Structured Finance

Groundbreaking cannabis CMBS closed

Market updates and sector developments

Groundbreaking cannabis CMBS closed
Pelorus Capital Group has closed PCG 2023-1, the first-ever securitisation backed by cannabis-linked real estate assets. The firm retained a third of the US$70m offering, selling US$45m of bonds, which it says attracted a range of institutional investors and hedge funds that were “drawn to the high yield and growth of the businesses”. The single-tranche CMBS is floating rate over one-month SOFR.

“Most industry insiders, lenders and investors believed securitisation would never happen in the cannabis sector without a change in legislation,” comments Dan Leimel, ceo of Pelorus Capital Group and manager of the Pelorus Fund. “We couldn’t be prouder to prove them wrong. This first-of-its-kind offering is a significant milestone in the progression of our business plan, which will provide Pelorus with advantageous economic and structural features, empowering the company’s continued growth with or without legislative action.”

Pelorus is a leading provider of commercial real estate loans for the cannabis sector, operating flexible acquisition and bridge lending programmes. The Pelorus Fund is a private mortgage REIT that offers a range of transactional solutions to address the diverse needs of real estate investors and portfolio managers.

The firm expects to return to the market later this year with additional securitisation issuances. Performance Trust served as the sole book runner for its debut offering, while Cadwalader represented the issuer.

In other news…

Aon, Vesttoo embroiled in LOC controversy
ILS platform Vesttoo is laying off a significant number of staff, believed to represent 75% of its workforce, in the wake of a controversy over fraudulent letters of credit used as collateral by investors in at least two transactions structured by the firm. The move aims to “solidify the foundation of the company and reassure the industry”, with its leadership returning its focus to core services.

Vesttoo says it is conducting a rigorous internal and external analysis of the events leading up to the first report of a fraudulent LOC. The firm has engaged a risk, audit and compliance expert and external attorneys to advise it throughout this process.

Meanwhile, Aon has disclosed that it is facing legal challenges from some clients and counterparties, for whom it provided brokerage services in transactions collateralised by the fraudulent LOCs. The firm intends to vigorously defend itself against any claims and seek recourse against third parties where appropriate.

2 August 2023 14:22:08

Market Moves

Structured Finance

Innovative financing inked for Deutsche Bahn

Market updates and sector developments

The EIB and HypoVereinsbank are providing credit lines totalling up to more than €2bn to Deutsche Bahn for the procurement of 90 new trains for the Munich S-Bahn. Deutsche Bahn will receive financing for the new vehicles from Bayerische Eisenbahngesellschaft (BEG), which plans, finances and controls the regional and S-Bahn traffic in Bavaria on behalf of the Bavarian Ministry of Transport.

To finance the purchase, BEG selected a lessor - LHI Leasing - in competitive tendering procedures. Under a leasing structure developed by LHI Leasing, the loans will be transferred to SPVs and secured by a debt service guarantee from the state of Bavaria.

The first newly developed S-Bahn trains are expected to enter service with passengers in late 2028. The vehicles feature modern passenger information equipment and can carry 1,841 people. The increased capacity is expected to allow for passenger growth in the coming decades and pave the way for mobility transition from road traffic to rail.

In other news…

Acquisition extends ALM capability
Numerix has acquired analytics and risk management solutions provider PolyPaths. With its expertise in structured finance and fixed income products, PolyPaths complements Numerix's existing capabilities and further extends its analytics asset class coverage.

A key advantage of the acquisition is the expansion of Numerix's asset liability management (ALM) capability, which extends the firm’s reach beyond the trading book to the banking book. Such growth will enable it to serve a broader range of clients and deliver greater value to the market.

3 August 2023 16:36:43

Market Moves

Structured Finance

Job swaps weekly: Sixth Street signs Salisbury

People moves and key promotions in securitisation

This week’s round-up of securitisation job swaps includes the announcement that Julian Salisbury will join ex-Goldman Sachs colleagues and Sixth Street co-founding partners Alan Waxman and Joshua Easterly next year. Elsewhere, Marsh has made a couple of senior promotions in its credit specialties division.

Salisbury is set to join Sixth Street as a partner and co-cio, alongside ceo Waxman, co-presidents Easterly (who is also co-cio) and David Stiepleman, vice-chair Martin Chavez and the firm’s executive committee. Salisbury is expected to start in early 2024 and brings over 25 years of experience building and leading private and public markets investing businesses. He comes to the firm from Goldman Sachs, where he most recently served as cio of the asset and wealth management division, responsible for US$2.7trn in assets - including more than US$450bn in alternative investments.

Meanwhile, Crestbridge has recruited Stacey Moody as a director in its Jersey corporate services team, specialising in corporate governance and administration of transactions across real estate, private equity and credit, including structured finance. She has over 15 years’ experience in the financial services industry, most recently as a senior manager at Intertrust Group in Sydney.

Marsh has appointed Angela Duca as global head of credit specialties, Marsh Specialty, based in Charlotte, North Carolina. She succeeds Nick Robson, who has been named global chairman, credit specialties. The pair will report to Pat Donnelly, president, Marsh Specialty and Global Placement.

Duca will join Marsh Specialty’s global executive committee and work with the credit specialties global leadership team to support growth and deliver innovative solutions that allow clients to enhance their business resilience across the three key areas of political risk and structured credit, trade credit and surety. She joined Marsh in 2008 and has held a number of senior roles specialising in political risk and structured credit. For the past three years, she has served as chief administrative officer, credit specialties.

Sambit Agasti has joined Mizuho as vp - real estate assets and structured finance, based in Singapore. He was previously a director, structured finance at Fitch in Sydney, which he rejoined in October 2021 after a five-month stint at Westpac.

Finally, Pan American Finance has appointed Eric Wragge to its advisory board, where he will help the organisation drive sustainable growth and deliver innovative financial solutions. Wragge is global head of business development and capital markets at the Algorand Foundation, having previously been md and head of Northern Europe ABS at JPMorgan.

4 August 2023 15:45:17

structuredcreditinvestor.com

Copying prohibited without the permission of the publisher